Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.179686 2.308897 2.445204 2.600300 2.772616 2.959048 3.177166
2025-03-23 2.003461 2.183383 2.382706 2.622047 2.904596 3.231412 3.643941
2025-03-30 1.857893 2.062439 2.296486 2.588071 2.947489 3.384406 3.969744
2025-04-06 1.746666 1.966004 2.223218 2.553002 2.973838 3.506975 4.259016
2025-04-13 1.643578 1.869327 2.139041 2.492621 2.956376 3.563960 4.459128
2025-04-20 1.595265 1.834302 2.125581 2.516678 3.045360 3.764794 4.880097
2025-04-27 1.562199 1.814855 2.128549 2.559605 3.159949 4.009030 5.398044
2025-05-04 1.531543 1.795806 2.129541 2.598039 3.269151 4.254492 5.956285
2025-05-11 1.481498 1.748854 2.090719 2.578295 3.291725 4.369921 6.314803
2025-05-18 1.437527 1.707458 2.056598 2.561966 3.316454 4.489023 6.697889
2025-05-25 1.395658 1.666811 2.021130 2.540853 3.331128 4.591630 7.066904
2025-06-01 1.355323 1.626451 1.983951 2.514599 3.334978 4.675165 7.412682
2025-06-08 1.323736 1.597172 1.961409 2.509427 3.373046 4.824141 7.933487
2025-06-15 1.304600 1.583897 1.960346 2.535747 3.463314 5.075858 8.745567
2025-06-22 1.268399 1.545880 1.922625 2.504211 3.455363 5.145847 9.151892
2025-06-29 1.234003 1.509175 1.885259 2.471076 3.441918 5.203308 9.542692
2025-07-06 1.194285 1.463901 1.833988 2.413888 3.383393 5.166838 9.679354
2025-07-13 1.180645 1.454482 1.834009 2.436683 3.464576 5.416812 10.681275
2025-07-20 1.172900 1.452923 1.845167 2.477336 3.580097 5.753343 12.085810
2025-07-27 1.164277 1.449717 1.853571 2.513712 3.690656 6.096811 13.703065
2025-08-03 1.141266 1.425216 1.829247 2.495027 3.697082 6.208383 14.557425
2025-08-10 1.120221 1.402962 1.807534 2.479570 3.708355 6.332744 15.535125
2025-08-17 1.098984 1.379873 1.783799 2.459579 3.709352 6.432902 16.477849